Daily teaching screen date: September 3, 2026. ZIP focus: Louisville, Kentucky 40214. Candidate selected: 6122 Lone Oak Trail, Louisville, KY 40214.
Current public sale price signal: about $155,000 based on public listing snippets checked for this teaching screen. DTU verdict: not a good flip buy at the current list price under the conservative walk-back math; useful as a Watch / negotiation-only teaching example.
This daily screen follows the DTU Real Estate Center of Excellence Good-Buy Framework.
Educational purpose only: this post teaches how to think through a real public listing. It does not guarantee profit, resale value, appraisal value, financing, rent, repair cost, title condition, timeline, or investment outcome.
Why This Property Is Worth Screening
Today’s 40214 screen is useful because the current sale price is low enough to study, but the spread is not automatically strong. Public listing sources show 6122 Lone Oak Trail as a 2-bedroom, 1-bath, 832-square-foot single-family house built in 1949, listed around $155,000. Zillow’s public listing snippet shows a Zestimate around $127,800, while Realtor.com shows the property history includes a 2023 sale at $339,500 and 2025 taxes around $1,409. A neighboring active listing at 6120 Lone Oak Trail appears around $169,000 with the same 832-square-foot size.
Market Value Walk-Back
For a disciplined teaching screen, DTU should not treat the list price as proof of value. The conservative resale value range should be treated as approximately $175,000 to $195,000 until interior condition, title, permits, and true comparable sales are verified. The educational base case below uses $190,000 conservative ARV, which is intentionally below stronger 40214 active anchors and above the low Zestimate signal.
The key teaching point is the gap between the public sale price and the maximum good-buy number. A $155,000 list price may look attractive compared with some nearby active listings, but the buyer still has to subtract repair cost, resale cost, holding cost, risk, and a protected 10% to 15% cushion. After that walk-back, DTU’s conservative model lands far below the public list price.
Good-Buy Calculation
| Line Item | Teaching Assumption | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative ARV | Base resale value after reasonable improvement | $190,000 |
| Buyer cushion | 12.5% protected value room | -$23,750 |
| Resale / closing cost | Approx. 8% disposition and transaction cost | -$15,200 |
| Repair / improvement allowance | Light-to-moderate 1949-house risk allowance | -$22,500 |
| Holding / capital cost | Taxes, insurance, utilities, lawn/security, interest/time risk | -$6,500 |
| Investor profit target | Minimum spread for effort and risk | -$15,000 |
| Maximum Good-Buy Price | Highest disciplined buy number in this teaching model | $107,050 |
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DTU Real Estate Book-to-Home Learning Index.
All real-estate lessons now sit in one chronological path while each post remains independent, clear, and useful for a reader who only has one minute.
Open Learning IndexNegotiation Posture
- Opening anchor: $95,000 to $105,000 if inspection risk is unknown.
- Target buy range: $105,000 to $115,000 only if the repair scope is controlled.
- Hard ceiling: about $120,000 in this model, and only if major systems, roof, HVAC, plumbing, electric, title, and resale comps verify.
- At the public list price near $155,000: this is not an A Deal for a flip under the current assumptions.
Today’s Classification
Classification: Watch / negotiation-only. This is a useful 40214 teaching candidate, but it becomes a strong buyer-protection deal only if the price moves materially below list, repairs are lower than assumed, or a verified exit value is stronger than the conservative model.
Why it is not a good buy at the current sale price: the model’s maximum good-buy price is $107,050. The public sale price signal is about $155,000, which is roughly $47,950 above the disciplined buy number before deeper inspection. That means a buyer would be relying on better-than-assumed resale value, lower-than-assumed repairs, seller concessions, or a different exit strategy. DTU’s teaching standard does not call that a good buy until the buyer can still keep a protected cushion after the math.
Sources Checked
- Realtor.com public listing and property-history snippet for 6122 Lone Oak Trail.
- Zillow public listing snippet for 6122 Lone Oak Trail.
- Diamond Key Realtors / GLARMLS public listing mirror for MLS 1727682.
- Realtor.com 40214 nearby active-listing context including 7517 Manslick Road and nearby examples.
Educational Claim-Control Note
This is an educational real-estate screen based on visible public listing signals and stated assumptions. It is not legal, tax, accounting, appraisal, brokerage, lending, or investment advice. No profit, resale price, appraisal, financing approval, rent, title status, repair cost, or timeline is guaranteed. Any buyer must independently verify condition, comparable sales, title, zoning, permits, taxes, insurance, financing, inspection results, and transaction costs before making an offer.