Today’s Louisville screen starts with required anchor 40214 and expands to the four ZIP codes showing the clearest public fixer, price-reduction, affordability, and resale-learning signals. The lead teaching candidate is 4812 Overbrook Dr, Louisville, KY 40216, publicly listed at $30,000.
Plain verdict: B Deal / diligence only — not an Undeniable Deal. The protected maximum Good-Buy Price is $33,325, only $3,325 above the current public ask. That thin margin does not overcome the listing’s full-transformation language, required flood-insurance signal, septic system, and unverified repair and insurability scope.
Educational purpose only. This DTU real-estate screen teaches market literacy and underwriting discipline from public listing signals and stated assumptions. It is not legal, tax, accounting, appraisal, brokerage, lending, or investment advice. No profit, resale value, appraisal value, financing, rent, repair cost, title condition, timeline, or investment outcome is guaranteed. Any buyer must independently verify condition, comparable sales, title, zoning, permits, taxes, insurance, financing, inspection results, and transaction costs before making an offer.
Top Five Louisville ZIP Codes Worth Watching Today
Required DTU anchor. Realtor.com showed 13 fixer-upper listings and a median list price near $259,900. A new structural-repair listing and a fresh $10,000 cut make this ZIP valuable for learning why discount-to-assessment is not proof of a deal.
Realtor.com showed 10 fixer-upper listings, about a $225,000 median list price, and roughly 40 median days on market. The $30,000 Overbrook full-transformation case is today’s strongest protected-math candidate.
Realtor.com showed nine fixer-upper listings and a median near $120,000. A two-unit property reduced from $60,000 to $35,000 illustrates why very low asking price still must survive rehab and exit costs.
Zillow showed 108 sale results, including multiple low-price houses. The $45,000 and $52,500 Columbia Street cases provide a direct comparison between thin condition disclosure and prior renovation claims.
Redfin showed six fixer-upper listings and several public candidates under $65,000. Old systems, no-central-air, as-is, and financing-limit language make the ZIP a strong repair-discipline classroom.
Maximum Good-Buy Price = Conservative ARV - Buyer Cushion - Resale Costs - Rehab Costs - Holding Costs - Investor Profit
Ranked Public Candidate Screen
| Rank | Public candidate | Current ask | Visible public signal | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4812 Overbrook Dr, 40216 | $30,000 | 2 bed / 1 bath / 827 sqft / built 1950; reduced from $65,000; full transformation, as-is, flood insurance required, septic, and no seller repairs. | B Deal / diligence only; not undeniable |
| 2 | 3012 Columbia St, 40212 | $45,000 | 3 bed / 1 bath / 950 sqft / built 1900; minimal condition narrative, wall/window cooling, public assessment $39,560. | Watch; $7,475 above ceiling |
| 3 | 816 S 37th St, 40211 | $54,900 | 2 bed / 1 bath / 980 sqft / built 1920; as-is, updates needed, no central air, electric heat, garage/carport. | Watch; $9,425 above ceiling |
| 4 | 1738 W Ormsby Ave, 40210 | $35,000 | 2 bed / 2 bath / 1,148 sqft two-unit property / built 1900; reduced from $60,000; repairs and updates required. | Watch; $11,500 above ceiling |
| 5 | 2140 Columbia St, 40212 | $52,500 | 1 bed / 1 bath / 760 sqft / built 1900; major systems reportedly remodeled about two years ago, but sold as-is with final work remaining. | Reject / No Good Buy at current ask |
| 6 | 4223 Grand Ave, 40211 | $64,500 | 2 bed / 1 bath / 910 sqft / built 1925; repair-required, as-is, and unlikely to qualify for most traditional financing. | Reject / No Good Buy at current ask |
| 7 | 5534 Cartledge Ct, 40214 | $155,000 | 2 bed / 1 bath / 860 sqft / built 1955; fresh $10,000 cut and move-in-ready claim, but public AVMs cluster near the current price. | Watch / retail-priced |
| 8 | 2011 Mary Catherine Dr, 40216 | $160,000 | 4 bed / 2 bath / 1,234 sqft / built 1964; renovation-plan language; public AVMs are higher but condition scope is undisclosed. | Watch; repair proof needed |
| 9 | 1786 Algonquin Pkwy, 40210 | $119,000 | 2 bed / 1.5 bath / 1,452 total sqft, only 776 above grade; month-to-month occupancy disclosed; portal range $111,000-$123,000. | Reject / No Good Buy at current ask |
| 10 | 5702 Deep Forest Ct, 40214 | $199,900 | 3 bed / 2.5 bath / 2,650 sqft / built 1976; as-is and explicit structural-repair disclosure despite nearby sales and tax assessment above ask. | Reject / No Good Buy until structure is priced |
Good-Buy Walk-Back Math
All figures are teaching assumptions, not bids, quotes, appraisals, or predictions. The buyer cushion is 12.5% of conservative ARV; resale/disposition allowance is 8% of ARV.
| Candidate | Ask | Conservative ARV | 12.5% cushion | Resale 8% | Rehab | Holding | Profit | Max Good-Buy | Gap / class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4812 Overbrook | $30,000 | $135,000 | $16,875 | $10,800 | $55,000 | $7,000 | $12,000 | $33,325 | $3,325 below max / B Deal |
| 3012 Columbia | $45,000 | $95,000 | $11,875 | $7,600 | $25,000 | $5,000 | $8,000 | $37,525 | $7,475 high / Watch |
| 816 S 37th | $54,900 | $105,000 | $13,125 | $8,400 | $25,000 | $5,000 | $8,000 | $45,475 | $9,425 high / Watch |
| 1738 W Ormsby | $35,000 | $100,000 | $12,500 | $8,000 | $40,000 | $6,000 | $10,000 | $23,500 | $11,500 high / Watch |
| 2140 Columbia | $52,500 | $65,000 | $8,125 | $5,200 | $7,500 | $3,500 | $6,000 | $34,675 | $17,825 high / Reject |
| 4223 Grand | $64,500 | $105,000 | $13,125 | $8,400 | $30,000 | $5,000 | $8,000 | $40,475 | $24,025 high / Reject |
| 5534 Cartledge | $155,000 | $170,000 | $21,250 | $13,600 | $5,000 | $4,500 | $10,000 | $115,650 | $39,350 high / Watch-retail |
| 2011 Mary Catherine | $160,000 | $220,000 | $27,500 | $17,600 | $35,000 | $7,000 | $15,000 | $117,900 | $42,100 high / Watch |
| 1786 Algonquin | $119,000 | $120,000 | $15,000 | $9,600 | $15,000 | $5,000 | $8,000 | $67,400 | $51,600 high / Reject |
| 5702 Deep Forest | $199,900 | $275,000 | $34,375 | $22,000 | $75,000 | $12,000 | $20,000 | $111,625 | $88,275 high / Reject |
Opening Teaching Anchor, Target Range, and Walk-Away Number
| Candidate | Opening teaching anchor | Target buy range | Hard ceiling / walk-away | Protection logic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4812 Overbrook | $24,000-$27,000 | $28,000-$32,000 | $33,325 | Only a full scope, flood/insurance review, septic check, and structural inspection can prove the thin modeled margin. |
| 3012 Columbia | $28,000-$31,000 | $33,000-$37,000 | $37,525 | Minimal condition detail cannot support a low rehab assumption. |
| 816 S 37th | $34,000-$37,000 | $40,000-$45,000 | $45,475 | No central air, electric heat, and as-is updates consume the public discount. |
| 1738 W Ormsby | $15,000-$18,000 | $20,000-$23,000 | $23,500 | Two-unit configuration helps only if legal use, utilities, systems, and renovation budget verify. |
| 2140 Columbia | $25,000-$28,000 | $30,000-$34,000 | $34,675 | Prior renovation claims do not create enough resale room at the current ask. |
| 4223 Grand | $30,000-$33,000 | $35,000-$40,000 | $40,475 | Financing-limit and repair language require a deeper discount. |
| 5534 Cartledge | $95,000-$100,000 | $105,000-$115,000 | $115,650 | Move-in-ready condition lowers rehab but does not erase buyer cushion and resale costs. |
| 2011 Mary Catherine | $98,000-$102,000 | $108,000-$117,000 | $117,900 | Portal AVMs are not a substitute for a written renovation scope and closed comps. |
| 1786 Algonquin | $50,000-$55,000 | $60,000-$67,000 | $67,400 | The ask already approximates the portal value range before rehab, occupancy, and resale costs. |
| 5702 Deep Forest | $85,000-$92,000 | $100,000-$111,000 | $111,625 | Structural repair uncertainty dominates the below-assessment marketing claim. |
Why 4812 Overbrook Leads Today’s Teaching Set
- The active public ask is $30,000, down from $65,000 in August.
- Public sources show nearby small-home value signals around $127,000-$177,900 and recent broader nearby sales from about $130,000 to $219,000. DTU uses a conservative $135,000 ARV teaching anchor.
- The listing says full transformation, sold as-is, no repairs, flood insurance required, and septic service. DTU therefore reserves $55,000 for rehab plus $7,000 for holding/insurance/time risk.
- After the 12.5% buyer cushion, 8% resale allowance, rehab, holding risk, and profit target, the protected maximum is $33,325.
- The ask clears that model by only $3,325. That is a B Deal teaching signal, not an Undeniable Deal and not authority to contact the listing side.
Public Source Links
- Realtor.com public listing for 4812 Overbrook Dr
- Realtor.com public listing for 3012 Columbia St
- Redfin public listing for 816 S 37th St
- Redfin public listing for 1738 W Ormsby Ave
- Redfin public listing for 2140 Columbia St
- Zillow public listing for 4223 Grand Ave
- Zillow public listing for 5534 Cartledge Ct
- Realtor.com public listing for 2011 Mary Catherine Dr
- Zillow public listing for 1786 Algonquin Pkwy
- Redfin public listing for 5702 Deep Forest Ct
- Realtor.com public 40214 fixer-upper screen
- Realtor.com public 40216 fixer-upper screen
- Realtor.com public 40210 fixer-upper screen
- Zillow public 40212 listing screen
- Redfin public 40211 fixer-upper screen
What Must Be Verified Before Any Offer
- Current active status and exact seller terms through a licensed professional or responsible party.
- Interior condition, roof, structure, foundation, water intrusion, electrical, plumbing, HVAC, sewer or septic, flood zone, permits, utilities, and insurability.
- Legally supportable unit, bedroom, bath, and finished-area counts; zoning; title; liens; taxes; and occupancy rights.
- Closed comparable sales matched to condition and micro-location, not only portal estimates or asking prices.
- Written repair bids, realistic resale costs, carrying time, capital cost, insurance, taxes, utilities, cleanup, and contingency.
Educational purpose only. This DTU real-estate screen teaches market literacy and underwriting discipline from public listing signals and stated assumptions. It is not legal, tax, accounting, appraisal, brokerage, lending, or investment advice. No profit, resale value, appraisal value, financing, rent, repair cost, title condition, timeline, or investment outcome is guaranteed. Any buyer must independently verify condition, comparable sales, title, zoning, permits, taxes, insurance, financing, inspection results, and transaction costs before making an offer.
Program separation. DTU’s public real-estate education work is separate from any regulated pre-license program approval process. Do not treat this page as a statement of KCPE approval, KREC provider approval, course approval, enrollment authority, tuition-collection authority, or licensure eligibility.
Return to the DTU Good-Buy Framework and daily teaching archive.